Slim Down for Summer with That's Fit

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Paul Foster
Chicago U.S.A. - http://

Paul Foster, a knowledgeable researcher has 21-years of professional experience in the capital markets, investments, trading, corporate finance, arbitrage, options and mergers and acquisitions.

Option Update: Fannie and Freddie volatility elevated prior to gov't takeover

The U.S. Treasury took over Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Equity markets rallied around the world and Treasuries fell on the takeover of FNM and FRE. FNM overall option implied volatility of 199 and FRE at 186 was above their 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting large price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 42; 26-week average is 38.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: UST volatility elevated into Altria acquisition talks

UST (NYSE: UST) is recently trading at $62.80 in pre-open trading, above its close of $54. Altria Group (NYSE: MO) is close to acquiring UST in a deal worth more than $10 billion, the New York Times reported. UST September option implied volatility is at 39; October is at 35 above its 26-week average of 27 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

ScanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) is recently trading at $17.49 in pre-open trading, above its close of $13.46. Samsung Electronics said it is looking at various ways of tying up with SNDK. SNDK, a supplier of flash storage cards says "SNDK periodically has conversations with multiple parties, including Samsung, regarding a variety of potential business opportunities. We evaluate all of these opportunities, but maintain a policy of not commenting on market rumors or speculation," SNDK September option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 59 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movements.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Volatility flat for heavy earth movers; CAT, DE, TEX ...

Terex (NYSE: TEX) is recently trading at $42.50 in pre-open trading, below its close of $47.32. TEX lowered 2008 EPS view to $6.35-$6.65 from $6.85-$7.15. TEX overall option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Agco (NYSE: AG), global manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment, closed at $56.10. AG overall option implied volatility of 49 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Deere (NYSE: DE) closed at $66.53. DE overall option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

CNH Global (NYSE: CNH), an agricultural and construction equipment manufacturer, closed at $35.17. CNH overall option implied volatility of 54 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) closed at $67.73. CAT October option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Retailers' volatility flat into Back to School sales (KSS, DDS, M, JCP)

Kohl's (NYSE: KSS) closed at $51.04 Tuesday. KSS overall option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Dillard (NYSE: DDS) closed at $13.05 Tuesday. DDS September option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 65, indicating larger price movement.

Macy's (NYSE: M) closed at $21.62 Tuesday. M overall option implied volatility of 55 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) closed at $40.63 Tuesday. JCP comparable store sales decreased 4.9% for the four-week period ended August 30, 2008, in-line with company guidance. JCP September option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Safeway and SuperValu volatility elevated (KR, WMT, TGT)

Safeway (NYSE: SWY) closed at $26.34 Friday. SWY October option implied volatility of 39 is above its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

SuperValu (NYSE: SVU) closed at $23.19 Friday. SVU October option implied volatility of 47 is above its 26-week average of 40, suggesting larger price movement.

Kroger (NYSE: KR) closed at $27.62 Friday. KR October option implied volatility of 32 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) closed at $59.07 Friday. WMT is scheduled to report August sales on September 4. WMT September option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Target (NYSE: TGT) closed at $53.02 Friday. TGT is scheduled to report August sales on September 4. TGT October option implied volatility of 36 is below its 26-week average of 41, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Jackson Hewitt and H&R Block volatility flat into earnings

Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) is recently down 10 cents to $17.07. JTX is scheduled to report Q1 EPS on September 4. Soleil Group says: "We believe there are too many uncertainties to be aggressive one way or the other; we are maintaining our Hold rating." JTX September option implied volatility of 50 is below its 26-week average of 55 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) is recently up 24 cents to $25.23. Soleil Group has a Buy rating and price target of $28 on HRB. HRB September option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX down 27c to 19.48; 10-day moving average is 20.24

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Tech leaders' volatility suggests flat risk; RIMM, AAPL, GOOG ...

Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) closed at $127.18 Tuesday. RIMM October option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) closed at $173.64 Tuesday. AAPL October option implied volatility of 37 is below its 26-week average of 47, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) closed at $474.16 Tuesday. GOOG October option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) closed at $23.15 Tuesday. INTC October option implied volatility of 35 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) closed at $24.11 Tuesday. CSCO October option implied volatility of 30 is below its 26-week average of 33, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: APC volatility at 45 into $5B repurchase program

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) closed at $57.84 Monday. APC announced plans to repurchase up to $5 billion, or 18%, of its outstanding shares at the current trading price. APC intends to repurchase about $600 million in shares before the end of the year. APC affirms debt-to-cap ratio of between 25% and 35%. APC October option implied volatility of 45 is above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

TiVo (NYSE: TIVO) is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close on August 27. TIVO overall option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 71 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 44; 26-week average is 38

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Precision Drilling and Grey Wolf volatility flat into merger

Precision Drilling (NYSE: PDS) announced the purchase of Grey Wolf (NYSE: GW) for $5.00 in cash and 0.1883 newly-issued Precision trust units for each GW share.

The transaction will establish PDS as one of the largest U.S. land drillers with a combined fleet of 371 drilling rigs.

PDS September option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movements.

GW overall option implied volatility of 45 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movements.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Dendreon and Savient Pharma volatility elevated

Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) expects the Independent Data Monitoring Committee (IDMC) to review in October 2008 the interim analysis of overall survival relating to the Company's Phase 3 IMPACT (Immunotherapy for Prostate AdenoCarcinoma Treatment). DNDN November call option implied volatility is at 164, puts are at 195; above its 26-week average of 129 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Savient Pharma (NASDAQ: SVNT) closed at $21.95 Thursday. SVNT's Puricase (treatment for refractory gout) BLA (biologics license application) filing is expected this autumn. SVNT September and October option implied volatility is at 86, December is at 82. SVNT average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks is 79 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Card providers volatilities flat; AXP, COF, DFS, MA, V

American Express (NYSE: AXP) closed at $37.43 Wednesday. Friedman Billings Ramsey says "Considering AXP needs to roll over 32% of its total managed debt (both corporate debt and securitized debt) within the next six quarters, we believe there is a risk there could be a material increase in the funding costs for AXP and thus materially reduce profitability." AXP overall option implied volatility of 48 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Capital One Fin'l (NYSE: COF) closed at $41.29 Wednesday. COF October option implied volatility of 76 is above its 26-week average of 65 according to Track Data, indicating larger price movement.

Discover (NYSE: DFS), an electronic payment services company, closed at $14.59 Wednesday. DFS overall option implied volatility of 63 is above its 26-week average of 60, suggesting non-directional price movement.

MasterCard (NYSE: MA) closed at $243.32 Wednesday. MA overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average, indicating non-directional price fluctuations.

Visa (NYSE: V) closed at $74.57 Wednesday. V September option implied volatility of 42 is near its 23-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: India technology services firms' volatility flat (INFY, SAY, WIT)

Infosys (NASDAQ: INFY), a technology services firm based in India, closed at $40.80 Tuesday. INFY chief executive said: "We are not seeing any trends towards driving prices downwards. There is (however) uncertainty about when the macro-environment will turn around" Down Jones. INFY overall option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Satyam Computer Services (NYSE: SAY), a technology solution provider based in India, closed at $21.91 Tuesday. SAY overall option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations.

Wipro Ltd (NYSE: WIT), a technology services company based in India, closed at $11.60 Tuesday. Goldman Sachs raised its rating to Neutral from Buy on August 19. WIT overall option implied volatility of 50 is near its 26-week average of 47, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: GM & Ford volatility elevated; Honda, Daimler & Toyota flat

Daimler AG (NYSE: DAI) closed at $59.55 Monday. DAI overall option implied volatility of 35 is near its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Ford (NYSE: F) closed at $4.89 Monday. F overall option implied volatility of 78 is above its 26-week average of 69 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

General Motors (NYSE: GM) closed at $10.36 Monday. GM September call option implied volatility is at 87, puts are at 103; above its 26-week average of 72, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Honda (NYSE: HMC) closed at $33.42 Monday. HMC over all option implied volatility of 33 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional risk.

Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM) closed at $90.75 Monday. TM overall option implied volatility of 29 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Retailers volatility flat into EPS & outlook

Target (NYSE: TGT) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on August 19. TGT September & October option implied volatility of 43 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Gap (NYSE: GPS) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on August 21. GPS September option implied volatility of 47 is near its 26-week average of 43, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) is scheduled to report Q2 EPS after the market close on August 20. LTD September option implied volatility of 51 is near its 26-week average, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Volatility for stocks with exposure to lower commodity prices

Anglogold (NYSE: AU) closed at $27.47 Thursday. Gold is recently down 3.11% to $789.20 according to Bloomberg. AU September option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) closed at $33.93 Thursday. Crude oil futures are recently down 1.64% to $113.37. VLO September option implied volatility of 53 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Southern Peru Copper (NYSE: PCU) closed at $24 Thursday. Copper is recently down 3.80% to 326 according to Bloomberg. PCU September option implied volatility of 53 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Archer Daniels (NYSE: ADM) closed at $26.62 Thursday. Corn futures are recently down 3.38% to 557.75, Soybean futures are down 2.59% to 1241 according to Track Data. ADM September option implied volatility of 44 is above its 26-week average of 40 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+32.7311,220.96
NASDAQ-3.162,255.88
S&P 500+5.481,242.31

Last updated: September 08, 2008: 09:00 AM

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