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Joseph Lazzaro
New York - http://

Joseph Lazzaro is a veteran financial editor with more than 10 years in financial news and financial publishing. Lazzaro served as Managing Editor of New York-based financial news web site WallStreetItalia.com / WallStreetEurope.com for four years. Lazzaro, who holds an ABD/Ph.D. in American Government and International Economics from the University of Connecticut, also served as a News Editor for the Pulitzer Prize-winning Hartford [Connecticut] Courant, prior to graduate school. He is based in New York.

One issue likely to influence voters' choice for U.S. president in November is the U.S. economy.

The Iraq War/War on Terror, and other issues, such as health care concerns, are likely to be factors as well, but look for concern about the economy to be paramount. Of course, political science teaches us that party identification and voters' attitude toward each candidate will also help determine the vote for president.

(In a nutshell, the political science theory that best predicts vote is PI + ATC + MSI = Vote. Or, Party Identification + Attitude Toward the Candidate + Most Salient Issues = Vote. But more on that, some other time.)

Further, regarding the U.S. economy, there's been considerable coverage regarding its health -- sometimes too much -- but not as much clarity. So, without further ado, some "givens" or clarity about the U.S. economy.

• U.S. GDP: The U.S. economy is experiencing anemic growth, but technically, it is not in a recession. Unemployment is trending up -- now at 6.1% -- put is still relatively low, compared to unemployment levels in previous economic slowdowns. [Note: The above is not to slight anyone who has lost his/her job; each job lost is a serious problem/concern for the person involved.]
• Median income: The median U.S. family income is down. In 2006 the median U.S. family income, adjusted for inflation, was $58,407, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau data, down from $59,398 in 2000. Since the economic slowdown started in October 2007, it's possible, but not likely, that median family income rose in 2008, but more than likely it fell. Moreover, it probably fell during that time period, for most families.

There are times when you need an archive of information and evidence to make an argument.

Then there are times when one simple fact or incident makes the case by itself. (Which, incidentally, may very well be the genesis of the adage "A picture says a thousand words.")

Evidence item of consequence: a lunch that global trade consultant Edward Goldberg, a colleague of New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman, had with a Russian trade attaché.

The Russian trade attaché, Friedman relates, years ago was delighted to hear from Goldberg that the Bush administration wanted to drill for oil in the Alaskan wilderness. The reason? The amount of oil derived would be negligible in terms of the U.S.'s needs, and it signaled that the Bush Administration was not planning to do anything to establish an alternative energy program, "which of course would threaten the economic growth of Russia."

Energy Trader Jim Dietz said the operative phrase in the energy markets now is not 'hurricane' but changing economic winds -- the global economic slowdown. "Each week I review individual country GDP reports to cross-reference institutional data on economic conditions, and they point to one thing, a global slowdown," Dietz said. "If developing world oil consumption growth slows, oil will continue to trend lower, and we'll test $100 in week or less." Dietz added that he was currently short unleaded gasoline and oil, with monthly contracts.

Work stoppage could hurt 787 orders

Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday now is not the time for OPEC to consider a production cut. "We have all three major economic regions of the world, U.S., Europe, Asia, decelerating, in good part due to the sky-high oil prices of the past two years. Now, just went we get some relief, OPEC says it's time to cut production?" Wang said. "It's way too premature to think about a production cut. We haven't seen Q3 oil consumption statistics from Asia yet. They could show an increase, which would be bullish for prices."

"With Hurricane Gustav out of the way, sentiment's building that this dollar rally has legs. European growth has slowed to recession levels, and China's economy has slowed as well. For Europe, lower interest rates are likely to follow, and that's dollar bullish," Resnick said. Resnick added that he expects the Bank of England to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 4.75% when it meets September 4. He doesn't expect the European Central Bank to lower its 4.25% refinance rate on September 4, but that stand-pat policy may change to accommodation, later this fall.